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Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala |
CAPITAL
MARKET WITH RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
His
perception: ‘stock markets are mysterious and
commanding, just like women’
His
advice: ‘make a mistake you can afford so that you can
live to make another one.’
With an
equity holding pegged at Rs1735 cr our very own Warren
Buffet, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, spent some of his very
precious time with the Mams’ forum.
Each
member, eagerly awaiting answers, had her fill of witty
and weighty tips from the man himself. Connecting
instantly with the audience he said “you are different
from my wife, she is interested in the proceeds while
you are keen on the process”! He breezed through the
afternoon covering the evolution of capital markets,
investment approaches, key to Indian stock markets and
buy-and-sell commandments.
With 105%
of his wealth in the form of investments he clearly
stressed on investment over “trading.” In the short run
it’s like a voting machine, in the long run it’s like a
weighing machine.” he added.
When the
session was thrown open, he fielded queries from the
moms with wit and élan.
“If the
girl is pretty the suitor will come” he said as an
answer to a who’ll buy who’ll sell question. He steered
clear from naming stocks but he did mention the mantra
he always stuck to ‘Sell when EPS (earning per share) or
expectation peaks or when the PER (price earning ratio)
is unsustainable.’ The man who by his own admission
‘invests first and investigates later’ borrowed a quoted
Buffet’s two point guideline: First: the capital should
be safe. Second: always remember point one.
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Dr. Ashok Lahiri |
Goldman
Sachs: “India’s economy could be larger than Japan’s
by 2032.
Deutsche
Bank Research: “……India will become world’s third
largest economy by 2020.”
It was one
of those warm Sunday afternoons, and while the rest of
Kolkata was tossing up the Sunday specials, Millennium
Mams were busy jotting down the ingredients of India’s
growth story. The Recipe was from the Master Chef of our
country’s financial bench Dr. Ashok Lahiri, Chief
Advisor to the Finance Minister
Reforms:
An Unfinished Agenda was on the agenda for that
afternoon. Dr Lahiri took the ladies through a brief yet
impactful tour of where India stands and where we were
heading.
He began
the talk on a positive note by saying that the current
GDP growth at over 8% is just the beginning. The
buoyancy in the manufacturing sector, growing investment
and savings rates, shrinking current account deficit and
comfortable levels of forex reserves (at $166 billion)
are all signs that the country is on the path to
continued economic growth.
With a few
more reforms in areas like education, mining and finance
and with PPP in infrastructure the country would march
ahead!
As the
whole world is looks eastwards, India is proceeding with
caution and enthusiasm.
To quote
Dr Lahiri, “The future has never looked as promising as
it does now, but there are miles to go before we can
leave the economy in the hands of an auto pilot….”
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MAMS
FORTE |
On January 31st, 2004, in commemoration of its
tenth anniversary,
Millennium Mams initiated a new forum – Mams Forte. This forum
includes members of Millennium Mams, Millennium Youth as well as
other interested women.
A year at Mams Forte is packed with interactive sessions. Eminent personalities
are invited to share their experiences, quizzes are held, the live budget
presentation is screened followed by its
analysis and finally the year culminates with the annual event.
Its success is amply evident by the fact that its present membership
strength is around 200 and growing.
MAMS FORTE EVENTS : 2007 -
2008
MAMS FORTE EVENTS : 2005 - 2006 THE YEAR THAT WAS
The Big Picture
- Macro Economics
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS---FACTS, PUZZLES AND GAMES
Dr. Kaushik Basu
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DR
KAUSHIK BASU |
Dr. Kaushik Basu, a specialist in development economics, addressed
the Mams Forte gathering in June 2005.
Dr. Basu began by mentioning how corporate India had gained
recognition from all corners of the world.
He explained the reasons for the financial
crisis in Latin America
and East
Asia, and how their domino effect on other
countries.
He also cautioned against the burgeoning fiscal deficit and the inherent risk in depending on
FDI and FII inflows.
He concluded by explaining how globalization has linked markets
across the globe.
Level
9000.....What Next?
- Mr. Jyoti Jaipuria
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MR
JYOTI JAIPURIA |
Mr. Jyoti Jaipuria,
Head of Research, DSP Merryll Lynch gave a wide spanning presentation
covering the essential questions of the Indian economy and the stock
markets.
Regarding the economy Mr. Jaipuria assured that the Indian
growth story is here to stay because of strong
fundamentals. The booming consumption is likely to continue
because of favourable demographics, rising
income levels and availability of low cost retail debt.
In addition, the spend on infrastructure will further aid demand for capital goods and the outsourcing industry will grow beyond IT to many other industries.
Mr. Jaipuria cautioned that the high P/ E ratios of shares seemed
over valued compared to other
emerging markets. He also foresaw the slowing down in the
earnings growth coupled with some corrections in the interest rate.
However, he maintained that the stock
market was the best possible investment in the long term. In the past 20 years, the real return of the stock market has been higher than
all other investments.
Know Your Industry
Telecom
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Mr S.P. Shukla
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A world bank
report states that for every $1 invested in the telecom sector there
is a growth of $6 in GDP! This amazing insight was revealed to us
by Mr S.P. Shukla, CEO, Reliance Telecom and President, Reliance
Infocomm.
His presentation spanned the growth of mobile telephony right from
its inception to its current status. Telecom infrastructure growth
in India, Mr. Shukla said was not due to liberalization but on the
contrary had been an aid to liberalization. Within just a few years
of its beginning Mobile telephony had overtaken the century old
fixed line mode of communication. It reached a crossover point in
2004 when mobile phones exceeded the number of fixed lines.
Mr. Shukla simplified the complex technology of mobile telephones
into laymans terms. At the end of it we all understood the seemingly
incomprehensible terms of roaming, location updates, MSC-BCS-BITS,
number portability, CDMA-GSM, fibre optics and the like.
Mobile phones provide a huge opportunity for Value Added
Services(VAS). The VAS we were surprised all began with the SMS
which at one time could only be sent on phones worth Rs.48000 ! He
stressed on the fact that technology would become cheaper and
cheaper and that the next generation phones would actually work as
our pc as well as our personal entertainment handset.
The afternoon concluded with a question answer session. He fielded
questions ranging from how mobiles could help in security issues if
requested by authorities ,to investment cycles in the telecom
sector.
Sugar
- Mr. Vivek Saraogi
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MR VIVEK SARAOGI
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In continuation of the “Know your industry" series Mr Vivek Saraogi,
MD Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. spoke about the structure and
future of the sugar
industry.
India is the
largest consumer of sugar in the world. The classless nature of its
consumption makes sugar prices a politically sensitive matter. As a
result large portions of the value chain are still controlled by the
government.
Today there are two major causes
for a paradigm shift in the
structure of the global sugar industry.
The first
is
the reduction of subsidies on sugar given by the European Union in
tune with the directives from the WTO. This has opened new gates for
competitive third world producers like Brazil and India. The second
is
the increasing demand for ethanol, a byproduct of sugar cane.
Given the current rise in oil prices Mr. Saraogi predicted that in
20 years the sugar industry will supply 20% of the world's energy
needs!
The demand supply
mismatch has prompted big players in the industry to make
fresh investments in
new capacity addition. Also the more
efficient producers are investing in co-generation of power to
reduce costs.
Power - Mr. B.L.
Chandok
Power is one of the
most vital sectors of the economy. To get an expert view on the
subject Mams Forte
invited Mr. B.L. Chandok, Finance Controller, RPG Group.
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MR B.L.CHANDOK |
Growth in the power
sector is directly related to GDP growth rate. Currently India
is facing a tremendous shortfall in power supply.
Mr. Chandok stressed
that the government should encourage private sector participation
with reforms, risk mitigation and return s. Competition in the power
sector should bring in abundant and affordable power. Transmission
and distribution losses were of major concern for the power sector
but rapid technological improvement was bringing these losses down
considerably.
Given proactive
government policy the future for the power sector is bright.
Cement - Panel
Discussion
In April Mams Forte held a unique conclave on
cement
which
was graced by three leading figures from the industry- Mr. H M Bangur of
Shree Cements, Mr Puneet
Dalmia of Dalmia Cements and Mr
K. C.
Mittal of Birla Corp. The three panelists gave a comprehensive picture of cement
industry
in India.
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CEMENT
CONCLAVE |
Mr. Bangur outlined the requirements of setting up a
Greenfield plant. Cement is a capital and power intensive industry.
The plant needed proximity to the limestone quarries and the
markets.
Pricing is of crucial importance-an increase of Re 1 per
bag of cement translates into a Rs 1.8cr increase in profitability
for Shree Cements!
Mr. Puneet Dalmia spoke on the cyclical
nature of the industry. At its
current production of 135mt per annum, India is the second largest
cement producer in the world and the industry is growing at 10% per
annum. Since 1990 the
industry has seen consolidation which has increased the industries
profitability and efficiency.
Mr Mittal categorically denied that the industry had
formed a cartel. The
industry’s future is bright as cement consumption levels are much
lower than in other emerging markets.
All the panelists were of the view that for the next few years
demand would outstrip supply. There would be further consolidation
and heightened MNC interest.
Other Events
Mr. Dhanuka was
invited by Xavier's Institute Of Management, Bhubaneswar to speak to
the students on financial analysis and investment strategies.
Mr. Bishnu Dhanuka visits Mt. Carmel College,
Bangalore and spoke to the young mind on the importance of financial
management.
Budget 2007
On
February 28th the Mams gathered at the Conclave to
listen to the Finance Minister present the budget.
Suneeta Marwah and Preeti Bagri set the mood by offering
humorous solutions to current economic issues.
Preeti
Bagri ala SRK of KBC posed questions to a homemaker,
software engineer and a Millennium Mam on their
expectations from the budget. Their expectations and
predictions were confirmed in the finance minister’s
speech a few minutes later!
The Mams
had got it right yet again.
The
Budget offered very few surprises. On the positive side
the thrust on education and agriculture was welcome. On
the negative side it was felt that it was an opportunity
lost to introduce more radical policies
QUIZ
In July 2006 Mams Forte organised a quiz. It was a quiz
with a difference - for all who came had to participate and
therefore there were 4 teams, each with about 20 participants!
The quiz master,
Parnab Mukherjee is a multi faceted personality,
well known in the theatre, literary and quizzing circles.
A sample of some interesting questions –
- Who designed the Wills packet?
Ans: Satyajit Ray
- Who finalized the logo for Air India’s “Maharaja”?
Ans: Bobby Kooka
- Which company was originally a manufacturer of arms and then
moved on to make a product that all of us may
have used?
Ans: BSA,
B irmingham Small Arms
- Who wrote the script for the Broadway stage production of Dev Anand’s “Guide”?
Ans: Pearl S. Buck
- During 9/ 11 when the second flight crashed into Pentagon which
company’s building was also partially damaged?
Ans: RJR Nabisco
The quiz was a
huge success as the Mams, true to their nature, enjoy
learning with a difference!
BUDGET 2006
Budget day saw the members of Mams Forte riveted to the live
telecast of the Finance Minister's presentation of the Union Budget. The session started with a senior student of
Millennium Mams giving her version of what we could expect from the budget. And it turned
out that she was fairly close!
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